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Real Estate Bubble in Southern California?
Southern California Real Estate Market Slows, but Prices Continue to Rise
Even though home sales have fallen to their lowest levels in five years in February, the average price of a home in Southern California rose to the highest level in history. For example, sales of homes in Los Angeles were 9.2 percent in February, while the median home price jumped some 15.6 percent to $490,000.
In February, the median price paid for a home in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino, and Orange counties was $480,000, which represents a 2.3 percent increase from January and a 12.9 percent from the same period last year. It's also the highest median price in Southern California history, even though far fewer homes actually changed hands.
The numbers suggest that perhaps the real estate market in Southern California is finally slowing down. However, February is traditionally a slow month for real estate sales, so it may be a bit premature to predict that the bubble has finally burst. In fact, a decline in sales from January to February is typical, so most experts will be waiting until March figures are in before they make any predictions. However, last month's sales figures were the lowest for any February since 2001, when 18,040 homes were sold.
The highest number of February sales in Southern California history was tallied in 2004 (23,004), while the lowest came in 1991 (10,025). Nearly 20,000 homes (19,905) homes were sold in Southern California in February 2006, down slightly less than one percent from the 20,085 sales in January, and 7 percent fewer than the 21,394 sales in February 2005.
With home prices reaching record highs, the average mortgage payment being seen by the typical Southern California homebuyer rose to $2,251 in February, up almost $100 from January, and up from $1,905 in February 2004. When the figures are adjusted for inflation, current payments are approximately 2.7 percent above typical mortgage payments from the spring of 1989, which was the peak season of the area's most recent real estate cycle.
Foreclosure activity of existing mortgages has been edging up slightly, but still remains relatively low in Southern California. The number of homes financed with adjustable-rate mortgages has dropped significantly over the last three months. Meanwhile, down payment figures have remained stable, as have flipping rates and non-owner-occupied buying figures.
All in all, it's too early to tell if these figures represent any lasting trend, but experts will be monitoring next month's statistics carefully for any further signs.
Copyright 2006 Jeanette J. Fisher
Jeanette Fisher teaches college courses on real estate investing and interior design. She helps real estate investors make money in ANY market.
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